Saul Griffith, "Climate Change Recalculated"

According to Saul's calculations, in order to reach a goal of 450 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide in time to limit a global rise in temperature to 2 degrees C., we'll have to reduce the amount of burned fossil fuels to 3 terawatts (of power). That means we'll need to replace 11.5 terawatts with new clean sources.

From Stewart Brand's Long Now Blog:

That would mean the following. (Here I'm drawing on notes and extrapolations I've written up previously from discussion with Griffith):

"Two terawatts of photovoltaic would require installing 100 square meters of 15-percent-efficient solar cells every second, second after second, for the next 25 years. (That's about 1,200 square miles of solar cells a year, times 25 equals 30,000 square miles of photovoltaic cells.) Two terawatts of solar thermal? If it's 30 percent efficient all told, we'll need 50 square meters of highly reflective mirrors every second. (Some 600 square miles a year, times 25.) Half a terawatt of biofuels? Something like one Olympic swimming pools of genetically engineered algae, installed every second. (About 15,250 square miles a year, times 25.) Two terawatts of wind? That's a 300-foot-diameter wind turbine every 5 minutes. (Install 105,000 turbines a year in good wind locations, times 25.) Two terawatts of geothermal? Build 3 100-megawatt steam turbines every day-1,095 a year, times 25. Three terawatts of new nuclear? That's a 3-reactor, 3-gigawatt plant every week-52 a year, times 25."

All of it! Please listen to Saul's Long Now Lecture to hear how, despite the odds, he remains an optimist.

Calculate and compare your own power consumption at WattzOn.com.

Check out the very cool 100 mpg, charge-overnight-from-a-wall-socket, ready-for-the-carpool-lane, 3-wheeled (California only) Aptera.
(As mentioned in Saul's talk.)

Intensive crop culture for high population is unsustainable by Peter Salonius

from Culture Change.org

Intensive crop culture for high population is unsustainable

Written by Peter Salonius

Editor's note: The following essay by soil scientist Peter Salonius is Part One of his two-part series for Culture Change that bursts the delusion of agriculture's providing for a large human population long-term. If after reading it you have doubt, read the scientific basis for it: the second part in the series, "Unsustainable soil mining, past, present and future." (A version of the second part was published in the May/June,2007 issue of The Forestry Chronicle.) The author lives in New Brunswick, and he published in Culture Change in 2003 "Energy tax made easy: Modifying human excess with international non-renewable energy taxation" (see link at bottom). – JL

I am convinced that we begin unsustainable resource depletion (overshoot) as soon as we use (and become dependent upon) the first unit of any non-renewable resource or renewable resource used unsustainably whose further use becomes essential to the functioning of society, such as:

THE FIRST TONNE OF COAL
THE FIRST LITRE OF OIL
THE FIRST KILOGRAM OF FISSIONABLE URANIUM
THE FIRST BARREL OF FOSSIL WATER FOR IRRIGATION — and
THE FIRST HECTARE OF FORMERLY NUTRIENT CONSERVATIVE NATIVE FOREST or GRASSLAND/PRAIRIE PLOWED

This last category of unsustainable renewable resource depletion (excessive leaching/export of plant nutrients from arable soils associated with most agricultural practice, and more recently also with harvesting of nutrient-rich forest biomass) has been looming over us, unseen, for 10,000 years. We can expect that it will catch up with us shortly because most of us are dependent on foodstuffs produced by unsustainable farming, and fiber produced by unsustainable forestry.

http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=154&Itemid=1

Unsustainable soil mining: past, present and future

Written by Peter Salonius

[This is Part Two of Peter Salonius's two-part series. The first part, "Intensive crop culture for high population is unsustainable", can be viewed by using the link at bottom.] ABSTRACTHuman settlement has increased food production by progressively converting complex, self-managing natural ecosystems with tight nutrient cycles into simplified, intensively managed agricultural ecosystems that are subject to nutrient leaching. (Most agriculture is unsustainable in the long term.)

Conventional stem wood forest harvesting is now poised to be replaced by intensive harvesting of biomass to substitute for increasingly scarce non-renewable fossil fuels. Removal of nutrient-rich forest biomass (harvesting of slash) can not be sustained in the long term.

[Key Words: soil nutrient depletion, biomass harvesting, site productivity]

Introduction

A general discussion of the concept of sustainability was presented by Gatto (1995), who suggested that notions of sustainability "reflect different priorities and optimization criteria, which are notoriously subjective"; however, the goal of maintaining soil-productive capacity is not a subjective notion. In this paper I will show that long term sustainable terrestrial carrying capacity depends on the maintenance of self-managing, nutrient-conservative plant communities.

The dynamic cyclical stability of complex ecosystems has been shown, for most animal populations, to depend on the ability of predators to dampen overshoot and runaway consumption dynamics of prey species (Rooney et al, 2006).

http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=155&Itemid=1

Culture Change mailing address: P.O. Box 4347, Arcata , California 95518 USA, Telephone 1-215-243-3144 (and fax).

Culture Change was founded by Sustainable Energy Institute (formerly Fossil Fuels Policy Action), a nonprofit organization.

Burning Men, Part 2: the Order of Things by Erik Davis of techgnosis

How does Erik think this stuff UP^! too much and very nice. R eally gettin' a Clue!

The Perp! above ^

eDavis:

So when Burners invoked specifically legalistic categories like "arson" and "reckless endangerment"–and I did it too at times–they were not just rationally debating Addis' fate. They were actively deflating the productive legal ambiguity of Black Rock City as a self-governing political and territorial space by capitulating, too quickly and without consciousness, to the reality tunnel of the State and, particularly, to its conception of property.

and

Look, for example, at the constricted lives of so many kids today, with their helmets and knee pads and car-seats, their time managed, their piss checked, their movements tracked by cell phones and prohibitions against aimless wandering. What has been killed in the process of making them less likely to be killed? Perhaps, in our fearful genuflection before safety, we are deadening our taste for the raw and nervy exultation of cognitive and physical liberty–a liberty which most certainly should include the freedom to attend dangerous and wayward festivals where, if your aren't careful or even lucky, large burning things might fall on your head.

Burning Men
Part One: Chaosmos

Pangea animations "mind"-blowin'! Astronomy Picture of the Day

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Discover the cosmos! Each day a different image or photograph of our fascinating universe is featured, along with a brief explanation written by a professional astronomer.

2007 September 22

Breakup of Pangea (200 mya – Present)Seafloor Spreading in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans

(to run animation, drag mouse across image)

(Read the explanation below, while you wait for the animation to load.)

http://www.scotese.com/sfsanim.htm

Return Home

The Following animations can be downloaded and viewed at your computer.

Plate Tectonic Animations

NEW Breakup of Pangea: Pangea Breakup VR

http://www.scotese.com/newpage13.htm

'In the Shadow of the Moon' film opens; no stars in any film frames?

How come no stars in the film/photos taken outside the atmosphere of the Earth? No views of the Star Fields on the 3 day trip to Moon. We went there 9 times?! No comments by any astronauts on the stars and how they do not twinkle in no air…and there would be plenty to see! Duh?! and what gives…I 've never seen a star in any photo by NASA taken by a film camera by a person outside the atmosphere since NASA started…

Astronauts Live 'In the Shadow of the Moon'

Film Records Deepest Thoughts of Men Who Went to the Moon

By NED POTTER

Sept. 7, 2007 –

In all of time, only 24 human beings have flown to or around the moon, looked back, and seen Earth as a small blue sphere in the blackness of space.

Their numbers are dwindling. Of the 12 who walked on the moon's surface, only nine are alive today, and the youngest is 71.

So British director David Sington and his crew set out to seize the moment — now, before the opportunity passes, to bring the Apollo astronauts together in one film, and ask them how the experience affected them.

"I think these guys are very sane individuals. They are very down to earth, because, in some sense, they really know what Earth is," says Sington. "There are 7 billion of us on the planet, and nine of those 7 billion have stood on another heavenly body."

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=3399586&page=1

Film web site

http://www.intheshadowofthemoon.com/

Clip on Apple

http://www.apple.com/trailers/thinkfilm/intheshadowofthemoon/trailer/

Current TV covers Burnin' Man

Live video cam from burnin' womans

http://qtss.telascience.org/live.sdp

burning man site and info

http://blog.wired.com/underwire/2007/08/video-current-t.html

current.tv coverage of burning man
http://www.current.tv/network/video?id=39821750

More current TV 2007 vids day by day
http://www.current.tv/burningman/

Jonathan Ott on Free/Cheap/Peak fossil fuels/minerals update/comments

from

Erowid Conference Report: Mind States Costa Rica by Lux, Erowid Staff Writer

v1 – Jul 18, 2007

sample from Jon Ott-

"The End of the Treasure in the Basement", by Jonathan Ott

Jonathan described himself as "not a prophet", but someone who has been interested in the question of energy and the petroleum-based political and economic infrastructure of the industrialized world since the 1970s. He's surprised that the infrastructure has held itself together as long as it has.

Most known organisms derive their energy from the sun, which was properly regarded by many religious cultures as the origin of life.

….

Since 1979 the amount of energy per capita has decreased, and more people have no access to energy and water every year. We're starting over the hill and soon it will be a cliff. This is important because energy equals life, in a literal and direct equation. What Hubbard pointed out was the disparity between the natural ecology of energy and the economic system of the world.

So we start looking to alternatives to oil, coal, natural gas, and wood. Take nuclear energy ï¿½ it is highly efficient in generating electrical power, but it requires a huge investment of energy to operate. Nuclear power plants must have their own power plant to run, and it may be the case that nuclear power does not even generate net energy.

Fusion reactors are too little, too late. A best-case scenario is production of fusion power in 2050, and that's way too late.

There are currently four countries that have not yet reached their peak. Jonathan predicts that within 30 years the wheels will come off the global economy. Perhaps as soon as 20, but definitely by 30.

Jonathan's response to this situation has been to create a self-sufficient solar and water power supply that powers his lights, a short-range electric car, and his basic needs. He's beginning to generate all of his own food in a sustainable little farm as well, and his hope is to live to see the day when everything comes unglued so he can see what happens.

http://erowid.org/general/conferences/conference_mindstates7.shtml

Ott is one of my favourite writers and theoreticians.

Author of (Books)

Ometochtzin: Las Muertes de Dos Conejo (2001)

Just Say Blow. Coca and Cocaine: A Scientific Blowjob (2001)

Shamanic Snuffs or Entheogenic Errhines (2001)

Pharmacophilia: The Natural Paradise (1997)

Ott book
http://www.erowid.org/library/books/images/age_of_entheogens.jpg

This is a mind-blowing book, especially the Angel's Dictionary!

Age of Entheogens & the Angels' Dictionary (1995)

Ayahuasca Analogues: Pangaean Entheogens (1995)

Pharmacotheon: Entheogenic drugs, their plant sources and history (1993)

Persephone's Quest: Entheogens and the Origins of Religion (1986)

The Cacahuatl Eater: Ruminations of an Unabashed Chocolate Addict (1985)

Teonanacatl: Hallucinogenic Mushrooms of North America (Co-edited by J. Bigwood, 1978)

Hallucinogenic Plants of North America (1976)

Back home after holiday visits, and, reflection…..

This year, I've made a huge move to another town, knowing no one, all by myself, with the goal of changing my life. I left a huge metropolitan area for a small town; a steady paycheck for part-time chump change. Friends and family were left behind, and only the unknown lay before me. At 45 years young, it has been both exciting and scary. I wanted to Powerdown, but what have I done besides using one Q-tip instead of two? How different are things really?

I blew into town last May 2006, a full seven months ago. Within one month, while parked in a local campground just outside of town, I had an apartment and a job, albeit part-time, for the fall. I spent the summer camping and learning about prospecting in the Klamath and Siskiyou mountain wilderness.

I learned how to make fires and cook in one pan. I learned how to exist without a daily shower, and use a Solar Shower to wash the dishes and myself. And I learned that finding gold by digging in the dirt does not payoff immediately, beyond, of course, the exhilerating joy of being in beautiful forest locales. I learned that if you are at a stream named Cougar Creek, there's a good reason why it has that name, and you should always carry a walking stick that can double as a weapon, just in case.

By the fall, I was teaching two math classes at the local university and walking to work. I could walk to the laundromat, the food store, and the little downtown where I started kung-fu at a small fitness studio. My paycheck wasn't much, but it would pay the basic bills until I got into something else.

As far as burning gasoline, I was way down.

So how many gallons of gas did you save, you ask?

Well, in Los Angeles, I used to drive 84 miles per day to get to work and back. Five days a week, that's 420 miles per week. At about 20 miles per gallon, that's 21 gallons of gas burned each week.

At 20 pounds of CO2 per gallon of gasoline, that's 420 pounds of CO2 each week!

So not only did I save 21 gallons of gasoline a week, I save 420 pounds of CO2 from the atmosphere! Now that's what I call political change.

I'm far off of my goals in energy use, but those CO2 savings alone was worth radically altering my environment and uprooting my entire life!

Well, I can't act like much of a hero anymore, cause I've lost that job now, and I'll be pushing off outta here in the spring. Before I settle again, this time at a coastal town, I'll probably be driving to the east coast to visit family and save some rent, stopping off at a few locations to drop off resumes and introduce myself for hire.

Is that carbon trading?

Ok, I'm half-steppin, forgive me, Lord!

But I'm gonna do better. I've got a few months more in this apartment, and I'm going to make the most of it.

When I went on this journey seven months ago, I had a solar power system on the roof of my van and it worked incredibly well. I not only had full power for lights, computer, and radio every night, at the campground, I set up an electronic music tent where I and a few fellow campers jammed on synthesizors, with drum machine, computer, and watched DVDs and videos.

Sounds like hardly camping, huh? Well, let me say that jamming electronics in the out of doors, inside a big screened tent, is My Kind of Camping!

When I got into my apartment, I ran an extension cord from the battery in the van through my window and ran my household items off of the solar power.

Well, the system worked like a charm, that is until I spent the entire day digging in the stream, not realizing that I'd left the van all shut-up tight in the sun, where the outside temperature went up to 105 degrees.

I fried the charge controller, and perhaps the battery. I needed repair or replacement. I've got to get that system going again before I take off.

I've also realized that finding a job sometimes means creating a job. Lots of research ahead, lots of work, but lots of opportunity as well.

All in all, I'm a better person than I was last year. I've drastically cut down on gasoline consumption and that makes a better world for everybody. I've got lots of ideas on projects, and it only remains to get busy actually producing.

Wish me luck!

I may be a doom and gloomer, but I'm sincere in wishing all of you a Happy New Year 2007!